Pakistan's kharif crop under threat as key dams dry up amid India's tightened control on Chenab flow

Pakistan is facing a tough kharif (summer crop) sowing season due to a sharp drop in water storage at its two main dams, Mangla on the Jhelum river and Tarbela on the Indus river. The crisis has worsened because of a sudden reduction in water flow from the Chenab river, which India has regulated following the Pakistan-backed Pahalgam terror attack.

Pakistan’s Kharif Crop Sowing Threatened by Water Shortage

This worrying situation may get worse in the coming weeks during the early kharif sowing period. It was a key reason why Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently spoke at a glacier preservation conference in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, urging the world to pay attention to India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

According to a Times of India (TOI) report, Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) estimates that the country is already facing an overall 21% shortage in water flow. Live water storage in the two critical dams, which supply irrigation water to Punjab and Sindh provinces and help generate hydropower, has dropped by about 50%.

The IRSA expressed concern over the “sudden decrease” in Chenab river inflows at Marala, caused by reduced water supply from India. This drop is expected to cause further water shortages in the early kharif season. The authority has asked dam managers and irrigation officials to use water carefully, keeping in mind the crisis caused by India’s reduced water supply from the Chenab.

The situation might improve once the monsoon rains arrive next month, but Pakistan’s farming still heavily depends on how India manages water flow through its own dams, Baglihar and Salal, on the Chenab river in Jammu and Kashmir. So far, India has only cleared sediments in these reservoirs to increase water storage and has stopped sharing water flow data with Pakistan after putting the Indus Waters Treaty on hold following the Pahalgam attack.

Public data shows that Mangla dam currently holds less than 50% of its total capacity (2.7 million acre-feet out of 5.9 MAF), while Tarbela dam is just above 50% (6 MAF out of 11.6 MAF).

Officials say India is not legally required to share water flow data after suspending the treaty, making it hard for Pakistan to manage floods during the peak monsoon season, since much of the Indus river catchment lies within India.

Punjab and Sindh Dependent on Western Rivers for Irrigation
Punjab and Sindh provinces in Pakistan rely fully on irrigation canals linked to the Indus river system, which depends on the western rivers, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

Although India controls the eastern rivers (Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas) under the treaty, it has not developed enough infrastructure to fully use this water, indirectly benefiting Pakistan.

India is allowed to build water storage facilities on the western rivers up to 3.6 million acre-feet but has not yet fully used this option, which works to Pakistan’s advantage by default.

Inputs from TOI