Russia-Ukraine war: Future of peace deal and security guarantees

Moscow: Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday criticised the role of European leaders to resolve Security Guarantees without Moscow's involvement, terming it a "road to nowhere" while sounding an alarm to Ukraine’s allies, who are involved in "a fairly aggressive escalation of the situation, rather clumsy and, in general, unethical attempts" to change President Trump’s outlook on Kyiv.

Lavrov evaded any direct reference to the Putin-Zelensky meeting. "Russia never exaggerates its interests. But, will ensure its legitimate interests firmly and harshly. I am sure that the West, and above all the US, understands perfectly well that seriously discussing security issues without the Russian Federation is a utopia," he stated.

It may be recalled that in April 2022, Russia and Ukraine negotiated Security Guarantees as part of the Istanbul Agreement, the framework for a settlement. Security Guarantees or some sort of Security Assurances from a collection of countries including Russia as a neutral Security Guarantor state in Ukraine should be protected within its territory after the war. China and Russia being guarantors and the members of UN Security Council can use veto power to block responses to future Russian aggression. The Security Guarantees anticipated no deployment of foreign troops on Ukrainian soil, non-conduct of military exercises without the consent of each guarantor.

This is what Russia has in mind and the present Security Guarantees go far beyond. It means some sort of alliance between Ukraine and European countries, without Ukraine joining NATO. This is completely unacceptable to Russia. Each side has been telling what each side wanted to hear, particularly Ukraine, the US and European countries. Russia would not accept any European Security Guarantees from Keir Starmer or from Emmanuel Macron.

Post-Monday's meeting between President Donald Trump with Zelensky along with seven European leaders in Washington, Trump discussed with Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban on August 19, Budapest as the credible venue for the bilateral summit involving Putin and Zelensky. Hungary has offered to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Potential locations like Budapest, Geneva, Vienna, Istanbul, Riyadh and Doha have emerged for the bilateral as well as trilateral meetings.

The message from Trump to the eight European leaders, including Zelensky, was straightforward and truthful. Trump told Fox News, “I assume you’ve all seen the map. A big chunk of territory is taken and that chunk of territory has been taken.” In different ways, the Russia-Ukraine war symbolized Russia’s war against NATO expansionism. It is Trump who has pushed Russia and Ukraine to end the war. The origins of the Russia-Ukraine war can be traced to the historical, cultural and political ties that have bound and divided Russia and Ukraine over centuries.

Trump wants to accelerate the timeline of these meetings. For the meeting location, the White House is pro-actively looking for a neutral venue. Trump meanwhile, has ruled out putting American boots on the Ukrainian soil as a Security Guarantee measure, but mentioned that American air support might be provided as part of the deal. In an interview with the “Fox and Friends” programme of Fox News, Trump underscored “When it comes to Security, (Europeans) are willing to put people on the ground. We are willing to help them with things, especially, probably by air." Russia itself would provide Security Guarantees to Ukraine.

In an interview with Fox News on Wednesday, the US Vice-President, J D Vance noted, “I think we should be helpful if it’s necessary to stop the war and to stop the killing. But I think that we should expect, and the president certainly expects, Europe to play the leading role here.” Vance reiterated that the US should not have to “carry the burden” of supporting and sustaining Kyiv’s post-war security. With Trump and the US disengaging, the role of Europe becomes more important to continue to support Ukraine. Many in the EU do not seem to understand that not only Ukraine, but Russia is also part of Europe. NATO and the EU are running a propaganda war. But Russia’s war on Ukraine is larger in scale and has far deeper consequences for Europe.

As Trump's diplomatic moves command to halt the Russia-Ukraine war, the backers of Zelensky, the European leaders are sabotaging the peace deal or the peace plan. Centrists in three powerful countries of Europe, France, Germany and the UK are creating difficult times for internal governance by fomenting war scares. Centrists are desperate and their policies are ineffectual. Europe’s New Right or European New Right (ENR) have skepticism towards the EU and display alignment and sympathy with Russia. Apparently, ENR’s realistic and constructive policies towards Russia will be convincing.

Separately, a day before the meeting between Trump, Zelensky and European leaders on Monday, Ukrainian drones struck the Nikolskoye oil pumping station in the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region. Ukraine intentionally attacked the Nikolskoye oil pumping station. Russian crude oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba oil pipeline which was halted on Monday. The strike on the Nikolskoye oil pumping station was the second Ukrainian attack.

Ukrainian drone strikes regularly hit Russian refineries making them fully or partly offline. Russian fuel prices have surged and refineries were damaged after a slew of Ukrainian drone attacks such as, Syzran, Volgograd, Slavyansk, Afpisky, Ilsky, Saratov, Novokuibyshevsk, Ryazan, oil depot in Sochi and Uniecha oil pumping station in the Druzhba oil pipeline system in Russia's Bryansk region.

Unlike many other European countries, Hungary and Slovakia have maintained reliance on Russian energy through the Druzhba oil pipeline. Last year, Russia supplied 4.78 million metric tonnes or nearly 95,000 bpd of oil to Hungary via the Druzhba oil pipeline. According to the Hungarian government figures, in 2024, Ukraine imported 7704x1014 watt of electricity, which is around 40 per cent of Ukraine's total needs. Additionally in 2025, Ukraine imported 1.65 bcm of natural gas from Hungary. Western allies of Ukraine are frustrated over Hungary blocking Ukraine’s entry into the EU. The EU is now exploring ways to bypass Budapest's obstruction. Notably, ahead of the Putin-Trump meeting in Anchorage, Orban had already declared that “Russia has won the war”. Hungary has refused to send arms and weapons to Ukraine.

Clearly, if European countries get more involved in Ukraine’s Security Guarantees, it will signal the continuation of the deadliest conflict since the Second World War.

(The writer is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia. He was formerly with Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Views expressed are personal)

--IANS

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