NEW DELHI: With the final phase of the Bihar assembly elections wrapping up on Tuesday evening, all eyes now turn to the exit polls -- the political prelude to the much-anticipated counting day. The high-stakes battle, primarily between the ruling NDA alliance and the opposition Mahagathbandhan, also marks the debut of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, which has campaigned vigorously on promises of change.
As Bihar waits for the first projections to roll in, here’s a look at how exit polls fared in five major elections held in the recent past -- Maharashtra, Delhi, Haryana, Jharkhand, and the Lok Sabha -- and whether the predictions matched the final results.
Maharashtra: Predictions underplayed a landslide
Exit polls:
Pollsters had predicted an edge for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance (BJP, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena), projecting between 150 and 170 seats in the 288-member assembly. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was expected to secure 110 to 130 seats, while smaller parties were forecast to win 8 to 10.
Results:
The Mahayuti performed far beyond expectations, sweeping 235 of the 288 seats, handing a decisive victory to the BJP-led alliance. The scale of the win exceeded most projections, showing a clear miss for the exit polls.
Delhi: Exit polls broadly accurate, with minor deviations
Exit polls:
Surveys predicted a strong lead for the BJP, while some overestimated AAP’s performance.
Results:
The final tally stood at BJP 48, AAP 22, and Congress 0.
Pollster P-Marq proved most accurate, predicting AAP at 26 and BJP at 44, a deviation of just four seats per party. Poll Diary also closely matched the outcome, forecasting AAP’s 22 seats precisely and coming within two seats for BJP.
Haryana: Exit polls misread the tide completely
Exit polls:
Predictions gave Congress a clear upper hand with 44 to 64 seats, while the BJP was expected to manage 15 to 32 seats.
Results:
The BJP stunned pollsters and opponents alike, winning 48 seats, an all-time best for the party in Haryana. The Congress managed 37, nine short of the majority mark. The outcome sharply contrasted with exit poll estimates, making Haryana one of the biggest misses for psephologists in recent elections.
Jharkhand: Exit polls drowned in a political downpour
Exit polls:
Most surveys predicted a neck-and-neck contest between the NDA and the INDIA bloc, giving around 38 seats to the JMM-led coalition and 40 to the BJP-led alliance.
Results:
When the results were declared on November 23, the INDIA bloc led by Hemant Soren’s JMM swept 50 of 81 seats, a resounding mandate. The exit polls, almost unanimously, failed to anticipate the scale of the INDIA bloc’s win.
Lok Sabha 2024: '400 paar' predictions fall flat
Exit polls:
Predictions for the 2024 general elections had painted a landslide for the BJP-led NDA, with some pollsters going as far as forecasting “400-paar”.
Results:
The NDA won 293 seats, well below the forecast, while the BJP managed 240 seats, 63 fewer than in 2019 — losing its solo majority for the first time since 2014. The INDIA bloc, led by Congress, surprised observers with 235 seats, underlining the extent of the exit poll miscalculations.
What to expect in Bihar
As Bihar’s 2025 verdict inches closer, the spotlight is now on the exit polls -- whether they will capture the pulse of the voter or once again misfire, as in several recent elections.
With Nitish Kumar seeking to defend his legacy and Tejashwi Yadav attempting to unseat him, the political stage is set for another fascinating test.
As Bihar waits for the first projections to roll in, here’s a look at how exit polls fared in five major elections held in the recent past -- Maharashtra, Delhi, Haryana, Jharkhand, and the Lok Sabha -- and whether the predictions matched the final results.
Maharashtra: Predictions underplayed a landslide
Exit polls:
Pollsters had predicted an edge for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance (BJP, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena), projecting between 150 and 170 seats in the 288-member assembly. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was expected to secure 110 to 130 seats, while smaller parties were forecast to win 8 to 10.
Results:
The Mahayuti performed far beyond expectations, sweeping 235 of the 288 seats, handing a decisive victory to the BJP-led alliance. The scale of the win exceeded most projections, showing a clear miss for the exit polls.
Delhi: Exit polls broadly accurate, with minor deviations
Exit polls:
Surveys predicted a strong lead for the BJP, while some overestimated AAP’s performance.
Results:
The final tally stood at BJP 48, AAP 22, and Congress 0.
Pollster P-Marq proved most accurate, predicting AAP at 26 and BJP at 44, a deviation of just four seats per party. Poll Diary also closely matched the outcome, forecasting AAP’s 22 seats precisely and coming within two seats for BJP.
Haryana: Exit polls misread the tide completely
Exit polls:
Predictions gave Congress a clear upper hand with 44 to 64 seats, while the BJP was expected to manage 15 to 32 seats.
Results:
The BJP stunned pollsters and opponents alike, winning 48 seats, an all-time best for the party in Haryana. The Congress managed 37, nine short of the majority mark. The outcome sharply contrasted with exit poll estimates, making Haryana one of the biggest misses for psephologists in recent elections.
Jharkhand: Exit polls drowned in a political downpour
Exit polls:
Most surveys predicted a neck-and-neck contest between the NDA and the INDIA bloc, giving around 38 seats to the JMM-led coalition and 40 to the BJP-led alliance.
Results:
When the results were declared on November 23, the INDIA bloc led by Hemant Soren’s JMM swept 50 of 81 seats, a resounding mandate. The exit polls, almost unanimously, failed to anticipate the scale of the INDIA bloc’s win.
Lok Sabha 2024: '400 paar' predictions fall flat
Exit polls:
Predictions for the 2024 general elections had painted a landslide for the BJP-led NDA, with some pollsters going as far as forecasting “400-paar”.
Results:
The NDA won 293 seats, well below the forecast, while the BJP managed 240 seats, 63 fewer than in 2019 — losing its solo majority for the first time since 2014. The INDIA bloc, led by Congress, surprised observers with 235 seats, underlining the extent of the exit poll miscalculations.
What to expect in Bihar
As Bihar’s 2025 verdict inches closer, the spotlight is now on the exit polls -- whether they will capture the pulse of the voter or once again misfire, as in several recent elections.
With Nitish Kumar seeking to defend his legacy and Tejashwi Yadav attempting to unseat him, the political stage is set for another fascinating test.
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